XLIV Szkoła „Współczesne zagadnienia hydrologii” 


Jabłonna,  16 - 20 maja  2016 r.

Zasoby wodne a zmiany klimatu

Konspekt wykładu


2 godz. wykładu

  1. Wpływ zmian klimatu na przepływy ekstremalne – projekt CHIHE, Metodyka i zastosowania, R.J. Romanowicz
  1. Sposoby detekcji trendu w wybranych wskaźnikach hydro-klimatycznych dla wybranych zlewni Polskich i Norweskich., J.J. Napiórkowski

2 godz. Seminarium

  1.  Adaptation strategy to floods in Poland and Norway, J. Doroszkiewicz
  2. Application of copulas in hydrology, S. Debele
  3. Hydro-meteorological projections of extremes into the 21-st century for selected Polish catchments, H. Meresa



HS2.4.3 Impacts of climatic and environmental changes on catchment hydrology.

Convener: Axel Anderson  

Co-Conveners: Ilja van Meerveld , Faye Hirshfield , Renata Romanowicz , Mikolaj Piniewski , Hege Hisdal , Martijn Booij 

Orals / Fri, 22 Apr, 13:30–17:00 / Room C

Posters / Attendance Fri, 22 Apr, 10:30–12:00 / Hall A

Climate- and land use change can influence the timing and magnitude of seasonal low and high flows and a catchment's response to extreme events. How climate- and land use change affect streamflow is highly variable and sometimes the changes are unexpected. The impacts of climate changes on high and low flow regimes may, for example, be quite different than the changes in seasonal or extreme precipitation. Changes in flow regimes can have a direct effect on society and water dependent sectors, including agriculture, forestry, fishing, hydropower, domestic water supply, and tourism. It is therefore important for society as a whole that the changes in flow regimes, and particularly the occurrence and patterns of hydrological extremes, are well understood for both the present and the future climate. In addition, it is important to investigate what characteristics make a catchment sensitive or resistant to change. This knowledge is a prerequisite for adaptation of water resources management to changing hydrological conditions.

This session will address both methodological and practical issues related to the analysis and modelling of hydrological responses to (extreme) events within the context of climate or land use change. We request contributions from scientists working on various aspects of catchment hydrology and particularly those studying how hydrological processes and flow regimes change as a result of climate or land use change. Potential topics include:

  1. Field and modelling studies that show how dominant hydrological processes and catchment responses change in response to climate or land use change
  2. Field and modeling studies that quantify the sensitivity or resistance of catchments to climate or land use change or determine which catchments are most sensitive to change.
  3. Attribution of changes in floods and droughts to environmental changes, including climate change, land use change and changes in water management.
  4. Detection of trends and shifts in observed and projected hydro-climatological data; analysis of possible sources of changes (e.g. relationships with atmospheric circulation patterns).
  5. Non-stationary frequency analysis for extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts).
  6. Adaptation of hydrological models to varying conditions in a catchment, including the effects of changing snow cover (parametric/structural non-stationarity).
  7. Development of methods for quantifying uncertainty in predicted hydrological regimes for future climate and land use scenarios resulting from the propagation of uncertainty from multiple ensembles, hydrological model structure and parametric uncertainty
  8. Adaptation issues: expected future changes in floods and droughts and how these may affect various sectors; adaptation strategies for managing the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes; feedback mechanisms in water-society interactions and their impact on adaptation strategies.

Presentations and posters related to CHIHE

  • EGU2016-919Analysis of magnitude and duration of floods and droughts in the context of climate changeSisay Eshetu Debele, Ewa Bogdanowicz, and Witold Strupczewski
  • EGU2016-6330Analysis of an influence of the bias correction method on the projected changes of flood indices in the selected catchments in PolandMarzena Osuch, Deborah Lawrence, Hadush K. Meresa, Jaroslaw J. Napiórkowski, and Renata J. Romanowicz, 
  • EGU2016-9716Was the drought of 2015 on the River Vistula in Warsaw the lowest ever observed?Hubert Kowalski, Artur Magnuszewski, and Renata Romanowicz,
  • EGU2016-12077Uncertainty introduced by flood frequency analysis in the estimation of climate change impacts on floodingDeborah Lawrence,
  • EGU2016-9433Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchmentsHadush Meresa, Renata Romanowicz, and Jaroslaw Napiorkoski, 
  • EGU2016-6579Model Related Estimates of time dependent quantiles of peak flows - case study for selected catchments in PolandWitold G. Strupczewski, Ewa Bogdanowicz, and Sisay Debele, 
  • EGU2016-9809Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approachJoanna Doroszkiewicz, Renata Romanowicz, Radoslaw Radon, and Hege Hisdal
  • EGU2016-9853The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case studyJoanna Doroszkiewicz and Renata Romanowicz, 
  • EGU2016-11238Quantification of Uncertainties in Projections of Hydro-meteorological ExtremesHadush Meresa, Renata Romanowicz, and Deborah Lawrence

3rd meeting


CHASE-CHIHE Workshop 26.05.2015

The rationale for this meeting is to give the scientists working in two independent Polish-Norwegian projects a chance to get acquainted with the so far results and plans of each project. Exchange of information is absolutely necessary, so that redundancy is avoided. 





9:30 – Opening statements by the host and by the coordinators of two projects

9:40 – Tour de table – self-introduction of participants

9:50 – Presentation CHASE-PL 1 (by coordinator, perhaps delivered by ZK: Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland, CHASE-PL. A review)

10:25 – Presentation CHASE-PL 2 (by Norwegian partner)

11:00 – Tea / coffee break

11:20 – Presentation CHASE-PL 3 (by Polish partner, perhaps delivered by Dr Piniewski: Hydrological modelling of climate change impacts in the Vistula and Odra basins across different scales: objectives, data and methods).

11:55 - Presentation CHIHE  (RR)

  • WP1 – Changes in observed hydro-meteorological time series in Polish and Norwegian catchments   
  • WP2 – Projections for climate change impacts on hydrological extremes under a future climate: Methods, results and their uncertainties
  • WP3 – Flood and drought frequency analysis within a non-stationary framework: Methodology and application  
  • WP4 – Adaptation to floods under a future climate

12:30 – Presentation CHIHE: WP1 and WP2 (JN and MO) 

13:05 – Lunch break

14:05 – Presentation CHIHE: WP3 and WP4 (EB and RR)

14:40 – General discussion



1st meeting

1st Workshop


Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes



Workshop venue:

Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences,

Warsaw, Poland


Workshop Programme


Wednesday, 12.02.2014

·         Arrival of participants from Norway  - afternoon, accommodation in the Hotel Bristol


Thursday, 13.02.2014,


1.       Introduction and background – R. Romanowicz (5 mins)

2.       Short presentation of the project participants:      (30 mins)

Deborah Lawrence, Hege Hisdal, Donna Wilson, Witold Strupczewski, Renata Romanowicz, Jarosław Napiórkowski, Ewa Bogdanowicz, Marzena Osuch , Joanna Doroszkiewicz, Hadush Meresa, Sisay Debele


3.       Presentation of Work Packages – main tasks

·         WP1 – Jarek Napiórkowski/Marzena Osuch

·         WP2 – Deborah Lawrence

·         WP3 – Witold Strupczewski/Ewa Bogdanowicz

·         WP4 – Hege Hisdal

·         Discussion on the tasks, detailed time schedule, sub-deliverables

Lunch 13.00

4.       Discussions (led by: names in parenthesis)

·         Choice of catchments: Norwegian and Polish perspective (Donna, Marzena)

·         Ensemble methods for developing hydrological projections – availability of climate projections and feasibility of methods (Deborah)

·         Trend, homogeneity and correlation analyses of observed temperature, precipitation and discharge parameters (Donna)

·         Data types and methods in FA (low and high flows) (Ewa)

·         Methods of dealing with dependent data (Renata)

·         Nonstationarity issues (Witek)

·         Hydrological models (Jarek)

·         Adaptation to floods: Norwegian and Polish perspective (Hege, Joanna)


5.       Other business

Closing: 18.00

Dinner: 19.00 – Restauracja Polka


Friday, 14.02.2014

9.00-11.00  - discussions with students etc


11.15 – departure for the airport

2nd meeting

Minutes from the 2nd CHIHE Workshop, held on the 20th -21st of January 2015, at the Norwegian Water and Energy Directorate (NWE), Oslo.

Present: Hege Hisdal, Deborah Lawrence, Ewa Bogdanowicz, Renata Romanowicz, Marzena Osuch, Joanna Doroszkiewicz, Hadush Meresa, Jaroslaw Napiorkowski

In addition, there were also present Wai Wong and Heidi Lee from the NWE at the meeting.

Workshop was opened by Deborah Lawrence, followed by the introduction presented by Renata Romanowicz.

Renata gave a short presentation of the aims of the meeting, which were a summary of the first year of the project, achieved mail-stones and deliverables in all WPs according to the Project plan. Workshop additional outcomes were as follows:  

·         selection of bias correction methods;

·         selection of hydrological models;

·         discussion on the criteria of hydrological model calibration for low and high flows.

In addition, a summary of the present status of students’ work, Joanna, Hadush and Sisay Debele, towards their PhDs was to be assessed.

The report on the progress in WP1 was given by Jaroslaw.  The first year of the project in this WP1 was focused on the selection of eight Polish and Norwegian catchments as case studies. The results were presented in two Reports. The first one, “Hydrological Catchment Selection in Poland for Climate Change Impact Studies” was written by Hadush, Marzena and Jaroslaw, the second, was prepared by Donna Wilson and was related to the choice of Norwegian catchments. In a result ten hydrological catchments were selected for Poland and eight for Norway.

The other important part of the research was performed together with the other WPs, on the choice of hydro-meteorological  indices for climate change impact studies.  Among the topics discussed, related to the choice of catchments, were the availability of data related to the land cover and elevation  data in Norway and Poland, spatial distribution of time series, tests on time-series homogeneity (temperature and precipitation) and HBV model conceptualization scheme applied in the Norwegian studies.

The next WP1 task is focused on trend, homogeneity and correlation analyses of observed temperature, precipitation and discharge parameters for each of the selected Norwegian and Polish catchments.  This deliverable is due at the end of 2015.

The report on WP2 progress was presented by Deborah. The HBV model conceptualization, that takes into account variations in elevation and application of gridded (2x2 km2) input data (temperature and precipitation), prepared by the Norwegian Met-Office was one of the discussed topics. The work in this WP2 concentrated on the downloading and preparation of ENSEMBLES and EUROCORDEX data sets, performed by Marzena and Hadush.

The report on WP3 was presented by Ewa.  The work in this WP3 concentrated on the ML estimation in the presence of covariates and so called two-stage estimation, Non-stationary multi-model approach to the extreme value modeling, DqF and QdF approaches to high and low flows, Copulas in seasonal approach and copula based time series models. Among the discussed problems there were differences between drought and flood processes to be also discussed from the point of view of DqF and QdF approaches and analysis of dependent/independent seasonal maxima (minima) performed by  Sisay.

Hege Hisdale presented the report on the WP4 progress – climate change adaptation in Poland and Norway. The first task of this WP4 was the identification of flood management  measures and type of constructions, overview of policy and laws (suitable) for adaptation. The report on that issue was prepared by Joanna and it forms the background of her first PhD paper under preparation.

The discussion that followed included

·         Eurocordex data

·         Norway has 1x1km grided datasets of precipitation and temperature over the whole country

·         Question on gridded data against point –station data

·         Eobs data

In the afternoon, the discussions followed on the current and future work in the WPs. These included:

Trend analysis presented by JJN in the form of a  review of work done on monthly data trend analysis by prof.  Mitosek. Trend analysis was performed using different significance tests. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) was presented by Renata.

After a discussion it was decided to apply three methods : Man Kendall test, DHR, Wavelets, to both Norwegian and Polish data

In the following part of the meeting the research on summer droughts in Norway was presented by Wai Wong. The presentation included a discussion of differences in summer and winter droughts due to different conditions.

Marzena gave the presentation on SPI indices, based on Prague Conference talk. The research showed that different results are obtained for raw and bias-corrected data, which indicates the importance of bias correction methods to preserve trend. Precipitation and temperature can be corrected using the change factor (subtract the bias and multiply, respectively). HESS 2013 – Hempel et al.

Deborah Lawrence gave a presentation on bias correction methods, including the issues of preserving high and low flows, correlation between T and P, validation of bias correction methods, issue for extreme indices, perturbation method for extremes – Patrick Willems (?), bias correction using Copula and multivariate quantile mapping – [Piani, XX]. It was suggested that Double Gamma distribution should be applied in WP2 as it gives good results in bias correction.


Non-stationarity issues were discussed by  Marzena, who presented an article on the application of regression models applied to describe relation between parameters and climate indices (presented in Potsdam);

Ewa gave a presentation on quantile regression – introducing index on upper or lower quantile indices. Ewa asked if there were any physical reasons for correlation between precipitation and temperature; weather patterns – will they change?

Wednesday, 21.01.2015

This part of the meeting had three main topics planned for a discussion: Adaptation policy and instruments in Poland (Joanna, Renata); Discussion on the adaptation techniques in Norway (Hege); Discussion on the CHIHE web-page and promotion (Renata)

Hege presented  an application of adaptation techniques in Norway, which included Median used as potential change, spread – probability; Municipalities do not want to see probabilities; Classification of changes into 3 groups (0, 20% and 40% change); Differences between Poland and Norway – much less dense population.

In the discussion on the web page the following was decided :

-          Prepare web page in Polish

-          Web page as a deliverable in WP4 – target groups and dialog

-          Put links to the and web-pages

One picture for About web-page – very dry Vistula River + flood

-          List of project participants+ links to the personal web-pages

Next part of the meeting considered the Conference plans. Among the interesting conferences are:

1.       EGU 2015, April, Vienna, Austria

2.       IUGG 2015, June, Prague, Czech Republic

3.       3rd Conference on Modelling Hydrology, Climate and Land Surface Processes, September 7-9, 2015, Lillehammer, Norway, co-organised by NWE

The last part of the meeting consisted of a general discussion on the present status of PhDs of the students and separate discussions within the working groups.

1.       PhD thesis: Hadush:

-          Drought projection using hydro-meteorological indices: PDSI and PSI

-          Review, testing and application of downscaling/bias correction techniques

-          Analysis of uncertainty due to differences in downscaling, climate projections and hydrological modelling

2.       PhD thesis: Joanna

1.       Laws and policies  in Poland and Norway

2.       Derivation of flood risk maps under different scenarios (hydraulic modelling)

3.       Comparison of various sources of uncertainty in flood risk assessment in future climate

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