Research outline

CHIHE relates to programme area 3.1.2 “Climate change including polar research” and the objective “assessment of the risk of climate change in the context of agriculture, food production, water management”. The impact of climate change on water quantity, both floods and droughts, can have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. Hydrological extremes have a direct effect on water dependent sectors, including agriculture, forestry, fishing, hydropower, domestic water supply, and tourism. Extreme hydrological events can also disrupt vital infrastructure, such as transport systems and healthcare facilities. It is therefore important for society as a whole that the occurrence and patterns of hydrological extremes, both in the present and future climatic conditions are well understood. This will enable the effective management of water resources under changing conditions.

CHIHE will advance our basic scientific understanding of recent and future changes in floods and droughts through:

  1. a statistical analysis of observed hydro-meteorological time series with a focus on extreme events,
  2. development of hydrological projections for likely changes in extremes, including an assessment of uncertainty in the projections, and
  3. the further development and application of methods for flood and drought frequency analysis within a non-stationary framework.

The focal study areas will be in Poland and Norway, and the collaboration will build on and strengthen existing expertise in the analysis of extremes in the participating institutions. In addition to the scientific output of the project, the project will also develop recommendations for an adaptation strategy for managing the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes in Poland, with a particular focus on flooding within the context of the European Flood Directive. CHICHE participants will also actively engage with the international research community and thereby further strengthen links between Polish, Norwegian and other international research activities.