4th meeting


Minutes from the CHIHE Workshop 30-31.03.2016, Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, ul. Ks. Janusza 64. 

Present: Ewa Bogdanowicz, Sisay Debele, Joanna Doroszkiewicz, Hege Hisdal, Deborah Lawrence, Heidi Lee, Hadush Meresa, Jaroslaw Napiorkowski, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Witold Strupczewski

The aims of the workshop were:

(i) a summary of up-to-date achievements in the project;

(ii) drawing the plans for the last period of work (end of this year and possible prolongation until April 2017);

(iii) a summary of presentations for the EGU2016 session;

(iv) planning the CHIHE conference to be held this Summer/Autumn in Warsaw.



The main points of the discussion were as follows:

  1. Renata Romanowicz opened the meeting and gave a short summary of the project achievements and things to do.
  2. Jarosław Napiórkowski summarised work performed in the WP1. This work package is has ended  on the 29.02.2016. At the moment the paper is under preparation on trends in climatic variables.
  3. Deborah Lawrence presented  work accomplished on the WP2, including WP tasks, Task 2.1 Modelling strategy; Climate models; Bias correction; hydrological modelling, analysis of extreme indices an Task2.2 on bias correction techniques. The validation of bias correction is possible only on observations not used for bias correction. Hadush works on it. Also the comparison of uncorrected and corrected flow simulations is being performed. Task 2.3 calibration of hydrological models – full time horizon is considered (1971-2099). In Polish catchments  there are large differences between corrected and uncorrected results (MAF), whilst in Norwegian catchments the differences are small. In Task 2.3 influence of uncertainty will be also performed, including the  FFA, hydrological modelling and Climate Model uncertainty.
  4. WP3 –Ewa Bogdanowicz presented work on Non-stationary Poisson process modelling; use of POT when frequency of large flows is larger than 2; DqF, QdF, comparison of droughts and floods in future period: 2021-2050. Publication – seasonal trends, multi-model approach to find the distribution of seasonal maxima; comparison with seasonal maxima for projections. Results for trends in quantiles for seasonal maxima for Lasica; Winter season – 1.nov-31.May. Illustration of regime-changing trends. 
  5. WP4 – Hege Hisdal presented a summary of the work in WP4 that included the report and the paper submitted to Water Management Journal; the second report on climate factor presented the recommendations on climate adaptation for the stakeholders and the Stakeholder workshop. 
  6. The discussion on the CHIHE Conference included information on the questionnaire to stakeholders presented by Hege Hisdal who also discussed the proposal of the meeting.
  7. In the next point the status of PhDs was presented by Hadush Meresa, Sisay Debele and Joanna Doroszkiewicz.
  8. The next part of the meeting was occupied by the presentation of papers submitted for the publication under CHIHE. These were:
    •  “Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes (CHIHE): A Polish-Norwegian Project” Renata Romanowicz et al., Acta Geophysica (15 min)
    • Sisay Debele, Ewa Bogdanowicz and Witold Strupczewski, Copula Based Seasonal Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) for Dependent Seasonal Maxima
    • Joanna Doroszkiewicz et al., Flood management policies and measures for climate change adaptation in Poland and Norway (15 min) with comment from Hege: New legislation in Norway: National Governmental planning directive on climate change adaptation
    • “Trends in projections of Standardized Precipitation Indices in a future climate in Poland” Marzena Osuch, R. J. Romanowicz, D. Lawrence, W. K. Wong, HESS, (15 min) 
    •  “Hydro-meteorological drought projections into the 21-st century for selected Polish catchments” Hadush K. Meresa, Marzena Osuch and Renata Romanowicz 
    • Romanowicz et al., “Projections of changes in flood hazard in two headwater catchments of the Vistula in the context of European-scale studies”, Hadush Meresa
    • Renata Romanowicz and Kiczko, A.,  “An event simulation approach to the assessment of flood level frequencies: risk maps for  the Warsaw reach of the River Vistula” (15 min)
    • “Climate projections in the Hornsund area (South Spitsbergen)” Marzena Osuch, Tomasz Wawrzyniak, Polish Polar Research (15 min)
    • “Inter- and intra-annual changes in air temperature and precipitation in western Spitsbergen” Marzena Osuch, Tomasz Wawrzyniak, International Journal of Climatology (15 min)

9.      The next day of the workshop was used for the presentation of CHIHE-related papers submitted for the EGU2016 session 2.4.3: “Impacts of climate and land use change on catchment hydrology”. These were:

a.        “Analysis of an influence of the bias correction method on the projected changes of flood indices in the selected catchments in Poland” Marzena Osuch, Deborah Lawrence, Hadush K. Meresa, Jaroslaw J. Napiórkowski, and Renata J. Romanowicz : Presentation – this is the first work on flood indices in a catchment scale in Poland. Inverse Gaussian distribution was used for the derivation of quantiles. Mean Max. Annual flow and quantiles were derived for each catchment and each bias correction method. No uncertainty analysis of quantile differences was performed. Variance was explained using ANOVA. 

b.      “Climate change impacts on streamflow droughts in Polish and Norwegian catchments” Wong Wai Kwok: Q90 used for threshold levels. There is strong underestimation of drought duration by projections. The results for NSE and Log(NSE) are different for Polish catchments! Why??? Difference in circulation patterns between both countries. The procedure used to remove drizzle is the same for all bias-correction methods and therefore the influence of those methods is smaller than for the floods. 7-day moving average performed prior to analysis, only summer seasons;

c.       “Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchments” Hadush Meresa, Renata Romanowicz, and Jaroslaw Napiorkowski: GR4J results for Polish and Norwegian catchments; Assessment of projected and observed flows for ref. period; Normal test for wavelets; There are differences between EUROCORDEX and ENSEMBLE results in monthly temperature for Norway, as well as regional patterns – HH;

d.       “Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach” Joanna Doroszkiewicz, Renata Romanowicz, Radoslaw Radon, and Hege Hisdal: MIKE11 results; preparation of the model, cross-sections, 500 year flood; setting of boundary conditions, and initial cond., results have missing periods.

10.  After the lunch break the discussion was continued. Among the discussed issues were the questionnaires to the stake-holders presented by Hege Hisdal, the publication plans for the future and the Special Issue. Hege Hisdal asked to prepare the list of already published, submitted and planned publications. The discussion on the Special Issue was mainly focussing on the problem of attracting enough publications of good value to be published in a good journal. Finally it was suggested that the Special Issue might not be worth the effort and instead we should try to publish our research results in good journals.


11.  At the end of the meeting Renata Romanowicz thanked the participants for coming to the meeting and for their valuable input to the project.